Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 6%––an increase of 1% from last week’s poll and their highest lead since early September. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week) are as follows:

Conservative 43% (+2)

Labour 37% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)

Scottish National Party 4% (-1)

Green 5% (–)

Reform UK 3% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 8% of those who voted Labour, and 26% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 64% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 9% increase since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (76%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (66%). While a quarter of Liberal Democrats do not know how they will vote, 73% nevertheless say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have remained the same: 42% still expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats against 30% who think Labour will (down 1% from last week).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -5% in this week’s poll, which represents a 2% improvement compared to the past two weeks. While still negative, this result is better than the -13% result from a poll conducted three weeks ago. Altogether, 37% find the Government incompetent (up 1%) and 32% find the Government competent (up 3%). 26% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (down 2%).

For the third week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +3%, an increase of 1% since last week. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance, against 39% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating remains at +30%. 50% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 20% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at just +0% (7% lower than last week’s poll). 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 30% disapprove. A plurality (36%) of members of the public say their neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance, an increase of 5% since last week, suggesting that many remain neutral and undecided with respect to the Labour Leader.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment, an increase of 4% from last week. 33% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister. Boris Johnson’s 14% lead is 3% higher than last week.

Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (41%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (28%). Boris Johnson’s lead stands at +13%.

Rishi Sunak holds a 7% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 41% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 34% who think Keir Starmer would be––a 2% increase in Sunak’s lead compared to last week.

Finally, Boris Johnson’s leads over Keir Starmer with respect to more specific areas have increased since last week. He leads on being most suited to build a strong economy (46% compared to Starmer’s 29%), work with foreign leaders (42% to 35%), know how to get things done (43% to 30%), stand up for the interests of the United Kingdom (47% to 29%), and, perhaps most importantly at this time, tackle the coronavirus pandemic (45% to 28%).

Meanwhile, respondents continue to select Starmer over Johnson when it comes to being in good physical and mental health (42% to Johnson’s 30%). Keir Starmer holds slim leads as someone who “cares about people like me” (35% to 32%) and “represents change” (37% to 35%), but these leads have decreased in recent weeks.

A significant number of respondents (41%) continue to respond ‘don’t know’ when asked to select which of the party leaders best embodies the trait of telling the truth.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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