In our final round of swing states polling,we find Joe Biden leading in six swing states. Altogether, he leads by 2% in North Carolina, 4% in Florida and Arizona, 5% in Pennsylvania, 12% in Wisconsin, and 13% in Michigan. Our final voting intention results are as follows:
Arizona (26 Oct – 29 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 50%
Donald Trump (Republican) 46%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 2%
Howie Hawkins (Green) 0%
Other 1%
Don’t Know 2%
Florida (27 Oct – 28 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 50%
Donald Trump (Republican) 46%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1%
Howie Hawkins (Green) 0%
Other 0%
Don’t Know 3%
Michigan (26 Oct – 29 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 54%
Donald Trump (Republican) 41%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1%
Howie Hawkins (Green) 0%
Other 1%
Don’t Know 4%
North Carolina (26 Oct – 29 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 49%
Donald Trump (Republican) 47%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 2%
Howie Hawkins (Green) 0%
Other 0%
Don’t Know 2%
Pennsylvania (26 Oct – 29 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 50%
Donald Trump (Republican) 45%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 1%
Other 1%
Don’t Know 3%
Wisconsin (26 Oct – 29 Oct)
Joseph Biden (Democrat) 53%
Donald Trump (Republican) 41%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 2%
Other 1%
Don’t Know 3%
In short, our polling to date indicates a likely Joe Biden victory.
Nevertheless, while we are confident in our own polling, this election remains an unusual one. We have therefore identified in our Eve of the Election Report four key reasons why Donald Trump could still win.
