A little more than two months after the General Election and with the Labour Party in the midst of a leadership election, the latest voting intention poll of British voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows the Conservative Party ahead with a decisive 19.4% lead over Labour: 49.5% to 30.1%.
If there would be a General Election in the United Kingdom tomorrow, for which party would you vote?
This lead in the polls should give the next Labour leader an indication of the daunting challenges that lie ahead for the party. Notably, there is a relative lack of enthusiasm from recent Labour voters. In our poll, Conservative Party General Election voters were 13% more likely to say they were certain to vote if an election was hosted tomorrow. In the same poll, we also asked respondents how politically engaged they were. More than half of Conservative voters rated themselves 4 out of 5, indicating that they frequently follow political news. Only a bit more than a third of Labour said the same about themselves.
If there would be a General Election in the United Kingdom tomorrow, on a scale of 0 (definitely not vote) to 5 (certain to vote) how likely would you be to vote?
Altogether, our poll shows Conservative voters to be highly motivated and highly engaged. It appears that the Conservative Party is experiencing a post-election bounce. Their voters are feeling the enthusiasm that comes after a strong election victory. They are eager to see the consequences of their votes and are curious about what the new government administration will do.
Labour, on the other hand, are now looking to find a new message that will motivate and inspire their voters. Beyond those who are highly engaged now––only a fraction of their voting base––the next Labour leader must draw out and generate enthusiasm in those voters who are now demotivated and who either did not turn out or who very reluctantly voted for them in the last election. That will be their key challenge in the years to come.
Data tables for this research can be found here. To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.